Who will win the 2026 NZ election? What the polls and seat maths can and can't tell you
Nobody knows until the votes are counted. Here's how to read the 2026 polls, how party votes become a majority under MMP, and why small parties may decide who governs.
In this guide
It's the question everyone's asking, and the honest answer is that nobody knows until the votes are counted. We don't make predictions. What we can do is explain what the polls show, how the seat maths works, and what to watch to find out on Saturday night.
Quick answer
- A government needs 61 of 120 seats, alone or with partners, or more if there's overhang.
- Polls through October pointed to a competitive race, with no party anywhere near a majority on its own.
- Under MMP, smaller parties often decide who governs.
- See today's numbers in our Polls section and try your own result in the seat builder.
What the polls show
Six pollsters have published regular polls during the campaign: 1News–Verian, RNZ–Reid Research, The Post–Freshwater, Taxpayers' Union–Curia, Roy Morgan and Anacta. Our poll average takes the latest from each.
Two things stand out across the 2026 polls:
- Neither big party is close to 50%. National and Labour have both been polling well under 35%, so whoever governs will almost certainly need partners.
- Several smaller parties matter. The Greens, ACT, NZ First, Te Pāti Māori and The Opportunity Party are all part of the arithmetic, and some sit close enough to 5% that the threshold could change the result.
Polls have a margin of error of about ±3 points for big parties. Read how to read the polls.
How a party vote becomes a government
- Parties with 5% or an electorate share the 120 seats by party vote.
- Votes for parties below the line are effectively set aside, which gives everyone else a slightly bigger share of seats.
- Parties that can together reach 61 seats, or more with overhang, can form a government.
- If nobody reaches a majority, parties negotiate. See what happens if no one wins a majority.
Why the result could hinge on small things
- A party at 4.9% or 5.1% can mean six seats or none.
- One electorate win can bring a small party in below 5%.
- Overhang can raise the majority line from 61 to 62 or more.
- Special votes have moved one or two seats after election night at each of the last three elections.
Seats on election night vs the official result
2023
- National 50 → 48
- Green 14 → 15
- Te Pāti Māori 4 → 6
2020
- Labour 64 → 65
- National 35 → 33
- Māori Party 1 → 2
2017
- National 58 → 56
- Labour 45 → 46
- Green 7 → 8
How elections have gone under MMP
Only once in ten MMP elections has a single party won a majority: Labour in 2020. Every other government needed two or more parties.
Seats won at every MMP election, 1996 to 2023
- National
- Labour
- Green
- ACT
- NZ First
- Te Pāti Māori / Māori Party
- Other parties
How to find out on Saturday
- From 7:30pm, the first results arrive. Follow them on our live results page.
- By 10pm to 11:30pm, most votes should be counted.
- If it's close, the official result on 27 November may decide it.
Read when will we know who won.
Questions and answers
Who is going to win the 2026 NZ election?
Nobody can say for sure before the votes are counted. Polls through October pointed to a competitive race, with no party close to a majority on its own.
Who is winning in the polls?
See our Polls section for the latest average and every individual poll. The big parties have been close, and smaller parties have been decisive in the seat maths.
How many seats do you need to win the NZ election?
A majority of Parliament: 61 of 120 seats, alone or with partners, or more if there are overhang seats.
Can a party win the most votes and not govern?
Yes. In 2017 National won the most seats, but NZ First chose to form a government with Labour, supported by the Greens.
Sources
- Opinion polling for the 2026 New Zealand general election.
- RNZ–Reid Research polls.
- Electoral Commission: MMP rules.
This guide is general information about New Zealand elections, checked against the sources linked above on 4 November 2026. For anything about your own enrolment or vote, check vote.nz or call the Electoral Commission on 0800 36 76 56.
Keep reading
2026 NZ election polls explained: how to read them and why they differ
Who runs New Zealand's political polls, what a margin of error really means, why polls disagree, and how poll numbers turn into seats under MMP.
Who's standing in 2026: a neutral guide to New Zealand's political parties
The parties in New Zealand's 2026 election, their leaders, their 2023 results and their main pitch in their own terms, presented side by side without spin.
After the count: how a government is formed in New Zealand
Coalition, confidence and supply, minority government: what happens after election night, how long negotiations take, and the role of the Governor-General and the writ.